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Monday, 10 September 2012

UK Government Fraud

We're in this economic mess because of a basic fraud. It's a ponzi. 

Here is how it works. Take money up front for pensions. Instead of booking that as a liability, book it as an income and spend it. Contrary to the GAAP and FRS 17 that the government has signed up to. 

Now, when people start asking about where are the liabilities, the standard answer is that we can change the law not to pay them, so that means its not a liability. 

The flip side of this is interesting. It means that the current payments are legal. If you have to change the law not to pay them, then they are a liability.

Now to take money knowing full well that you can't fulfill your part of the bargain, is fraud. Asil Nadir, Bernie Maddoff found this out. 

Take Equitable Life. They didn't book their liabilities, and wen't tits up as a consequences when people sued to enforce the contract. So if the government doesn't book its liabilities, it will go the same way.

Take Robert Maxwell. What did he do? He raided the pension fund to pay other debts and meet cash flows. Sounds familiar doesn't it. Current pension contributions pay other debts and meet cash flows. 

Back to Equitable life again. Look at what happened when they couldn't meet their liabilities. They cut their payouts. Now has the government done the same? Yep. The contract for RPI linkage has gone. The retire at 65 has gone. A double whammy there. 2 years less payout, 2 years more contributions. 

Bernie Maddoff? Yep high payouts now, with false accounting, and then woops, he can't pay. Late joiners lose out. Mind you, Bernie Maddoff can't force people to carry on paying, he's in jail. The government? They will like the average loan shark send the boys round. 

When you put numbers to it, its blatantly obvious. The government is insolvent. Bankrupt. Bust. 

Instead people arguing the toss about personalities. 

Publish the debt numbers. Tell everyone that governments have run up trillions in their name. Then you will get huge pressure for no more of the pork barrel, the borrow and spend. 

Unless you do this, people will believe Labour and that's a disaster. 

Change the agenda. 

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